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WP4: Verification, Validation, Uncertainty Quantification (VVUQ)

Aim: WP4 will develop a generic European VVUQ package for weather and climate simulations that is deployable on supercomputers and that prepares workloads of pre-exascale computations on many-core configurations. The VVUQ package will be demonstrated for both dwarf and full forecasting system workloads, and scenarios will be explored with optimized case performance based on the available VVUQ methodologies. WP4 aims at confronting ensemble-based and other methodologies to improve VVUQ practices and to produce a generic VVUQ framework for climate simulation at the European level. 

Approach and methodology: WP4 builds on the URANIE project that has been started at CEA to understand and quantify uncertainties in numerical simulations. Although URANIE was originally developed to focus on one of the four main CEA areas of research and development, namely the nuclear energy and modelling of multi-physics phenomena in a nuclear plant, its scope of application has been broadened as soon as it became an OpenGL platform and has widened its user community beyond the historical partners. The URANIE platform will be enhanced to capitalise and disseminate the approaches learned from the weather and climate community to other science disciplines and use cases. The weather and climate prediction community has a long experience with the quantification of uncertainties through ensemble methods. Ensemble Prediction methods are targeted in WP4 by running several instances of the same simulation with modified initial conditions, and to analyse the produced results. The work will start from a small, but representative configuration and target a full, more realistic system. In order to provide a VVUQ software ready for deployment, first developments and tests will be performed on the CEA and BSC HPC clusters. The final version, dealing with a production-level ensemble weather prediction model will be deployed on the ECMWF cluster and potentially other platforms.

Suitability of the research approach: A two-way continuous exchange between both energy and weather and climate prediction communities is anticipated to benefit from their respective expertise, fostering substantial cross-disciplinary exchange of ideas and methodologies. The result is anticipated to benefit other research communities.

Measures for Success of the Work Package/ KPIs:

  • Providing a VVUQ package for the weather and climate prediction, and energy community with at least two successful deployments (and executions of the full-sized system) at computing clusters, demonstrating the usability and generality of selected VVUQ concepts across different HPC systems.